Nix Deep-Ball Numbers Tell Another Story

Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton publicly ripped into a national analyst who claimed quarterback Bo Nix rarely throws the ball downfield, even though league data shows Nix has thrown more deep touchdown passes than any quarterback since 2024.

Quick Take

Sean Payton fired back at analyst Geoff Schwartz after Schwartz said Nix “doesn’t push the ball down the field all that often.”
Since 2024, no NFL quarterback has thrown more touchdown passes of 20-plus air yards than Nix, who has 19.
Nix threw 612 passes in 2025 for 3,931 yards, 25 touchdowns and an 87.8 passer rating.
Broncos team stats show Nix completed 79 of 117 passes traveling 31 or more yards, for 794 yards and four touchdowns.
The clash shows how quick TV takes can clash with deeper football data that most fans never see.

Analyst’s Comment Sparks Public Feud

Geoff Schwartz, a former NFL lineman turned analyst, appeared on “First Things First” this week to debate whether Nix would take a big step forward in his second season. Schwartz said Nix “is what he is at this point,” adding he “looks like the same quarterback he was in college” and won’t often “push the ball down the field all that often.”

Payton did not let the comment slide. Asked about the criticism, the Broncos coach shot back with a pointed line aimed straight at Schwartz’s work ethic as an analyst. “Always easy to tell who works at it and who doesn’t,” Payton said. The remark quickly spread across sports media and social platforms as a rare public jab from a head coach at a broadcaster.

The Numbers Behind the Argument

Nix’s full 2025 season tells a story of heavy passing volume. He attempted 612 passes, completed 388 of them, threw for 3,931 yards, and posted 25 touchdowns against 11 interceptions for an 87.8 rating. That workload places him among the busiest passers in the league last season.

Denver’s own team stats break down where those throws went. Nix completed 79 of 117 attempts that traveled 31 or more yards downfield, good for 794 yards and four touchdowns in that range alone. Those numbers point to a quarterback throwing deep at a real rate, not one avoiding it.

The strongest counterpoint to Schwartz came from outside the broadcast booth. A community note added to the network’s own social media post pointed out that no quarterback has thrown more touchdown passes of 20-plus air yards than Nix’s 19 since he entered the league in 2024, playoffs included.

Why the Debate Still Matters

The fight highlights a common problem in football commentary. Raw attempt totals and yardage numbers show how often a quarterback throws, but they don’t always show how far those throws actually travel downfield. League analytics groups track separate measures, like average intended air yards, specifically because volume and depth are not the same thing.

NFL Network's Steve Wyche on why the #Broncos are "the team to beat in the AFC" this year:

"[Bo Nix is] somebody who’s got so much room to grow. He’s got so much ability. And now with Davis Webb, who’s been his position coach the past couple years, now designing and calling… pic.twitter.com/97p0LFYWcX

— Zack Kelberman (@KelbermanNFL) August 26, 2026

That gap between simple stat lines and deeper charting data is exactly what fueled this argument. Schwartz’s on-air claim was a broad impression, not a stat-backed breakdown. Payton’s rebuttal was sharp but also didn’t cite specific numbers in the moment. Both men were arguing past the deeper data that actually settles the question.

What is clear from the available numbers is that Nix threw deep often enough to lead the league in one meaningful category tracked over two seasons. Whether that fully rebuts Schwartz’s broader point about Nix’s game staying static requires more detailed film study than either side offered publicly this week. For now, the exchange stands as a reminder that hot takes and full data don’t always match up, and fans are often left to sort out the difference themselves.